A photo of dry, cracked earth leading into a cornfield, with text that reads

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May 22, 2026

Written by Duard Headley

Bear Breakdown: Mile High and Unseasonably Dry

In the wake of a winter so warm and dry it broke records, UNC faculty and alumni discuss causes, concerns and looming impacts for the season ahead

Bear Breakdown is an ongoing series where university experts share clear, thoughtful insights on today’s most talked-about issues. Each article connects headline news to real-world impact, helping readers better understand what’s happening and why it matters, while adding valuable context and sparking meaningful conversation for audiences of all backgrounds.

Missing: Colorado’s snowfall 

Temperature: <32° Fahrenheit

Composition: Dihydrogen Monoxide

Last seen: Briefly in the months of spring, but notably absent in the peak months of December through February.

As winter dawned in the waning months of 2025, the people of the western United States scarcely knew that an iconic part of the chilly season would be almost entirely absent for months to come.

Where normally there might have been cozy evenings blanketed by fluffy flakes, white Christmases and snowy New Year’s Eves, there instead was a winter filled with an unprecedented lack of precipitation and a huge number of days that saw record-breaking temperatures. 

Now, with winter (and most of spring) well passed, large parts of the country might be facing a scary summer. The snowpack in the Rocky Mountains is dangerously low and weather conditions aren’t predicted to change that, potentially leaving many residents of Colorado and the surrounding states high and very, very dry.

Faculty from the University of Northern Colorado (UNC)’s Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Geography, GIS and Sustainability departments, as well as an alumnus well-versed in the agriculture industry, shared their perspectives on the causes behind this unusual weather and the looming impacts ahead.

A headshot of David Lerach smiling

“The 10 warmest years, on average, in global history, have been the last 10 years. Cold snaps and local, individualized weather events will still no doubt occur, but overwhelmingly, we find ourselves in a world that is and will continue to get warmer.”-David Lerach, Ph.D.

Quotes from David Lerach, Ph.D., associate professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Natural and Health Sciences.

In what ways was this past winter different than usual?

We broke records throughout basically all of the Rocky Mountains and along much of the Front Range and foothills as well.  

At the weather stations designed to monitor levels of snowfall and Colorado’s snowpack — the seasonal accumulation of dense snow that melts over the course of a season — the amount of water in our snowpack and the depth of the snowpack itself reached record lows almost everywhere. In a few places, it might have been the second worst season in history, but in most, it was the worst ever recorded. 

It was an intense, very warm, very dry winter here in Colorado.

What factors can contribute to warmer and/or drier seasonal weather?

I don’t think there’s necessarily a definitive answer as to why a season like this might occur — any time you truly have a record breaker, you’re outside of the norm.  

That said, there are factors that relate to why a season might be warmer or drier than usual. For the large—scale picture, we saw a weak La Nina pattern this winter, which shifted the jet stream a little further north than usual and sets up higher pressure, drier conditions over the western United States.  

Even were a low pressure system to move in, the topography of the western United States forms a ridge that causes those systems — which are the ones that cause precipitation — to miss us a lot of the time.  

On average, Colorado isn’t that influenced by these cycles, but in this particular La Nina year, we had way more high pressure zones than usual that blocked us from getting almost any storm activity. The storms we did get weren’t very cold and didn’t bring a lot of moisture, either.  

Why are some parts of the country getting more precipitation than usual, while others are drier than usual?

The weather that occurs across different parts of the country is related on a larger scale. For example, when comparing our dry, warm winter in Colorado to some of the heavy rain and snowfall we saw across the eastern United States this winter, that was largely due to the ridge of high pressure that was often in place this past winter causing multiple low-pressure systems (or storm tracks) to steer around Colorado to the north and east, thus missing us altogether and dropping precipitation in the central/eastern United States.

Some low-pressure systems did pass directly over Colorado, but they were relatively weak and dry, intensifying as they moved east of the Rockies and gaining fuel from the Gulf, producing much more precipitation in the eastern parts of the country.

The more precipitation that skips us here in Colorado, typically, the more precipitation that ends up hitting the eastern parts of the U.S. 

What impacts might a warmer/drier winter and/or spring have on the rest of the year?

It’s hard to say if this past winter/spring will impact the rest of the year in many ways, but we can make some predictions by looking at what we call “climate drivers” — things like the La Nina/El Nino cycles and oscillations in weather patterns on a larger scale. 

We can put out seasonal outlooks that estimate conditions up to three months in the future — not things like daily high temperatures or individual storm systems, but overall conditions and outlooks.  

While there are some indications that there will be some storm tracks coming in the next few months that will hopefully give us some relief here in the western United States, later this year, on average, the pattern that’s being forecasted is warmer—than—average temperatures across this entire area. In fact, most of the country is expected to see higher—than—average temperatures, except for parts of Minnesota and the Great Lakes. We’re also expecting a continuation of the lower—than—average precipitation throughout the northwest and higher—than—average precipitation across the eastern parts of the country.  

Hopefully, it won’t be as bad as this winter, but it’s not looking much better.  

When it comes to wildfire season, when we’re warmer and drier than average, that will, of course, mean that the vegetation in the area will dry out. That vegetation, coupled with the crazy strong winds we’ve been seeing, can more easily trigger and fuel an increased number of wildfires. 

Wildfire season feels like it never ends at this point, and that’s not going to let up. It’s going to be an interesting summer. 

Was this warmer/drier winter a one-off event, or should we expect more seasons like it in the future?

Due to things like climate change and the fact that we simply find ourselves in a warming world, we’re certainly going to see warmer temperatures on average going forward — including warmer seasons across the board.  

At times, things like the solar cycle and other factors may give us a slightly colder year than the one that came before, but that won’t mean we’re moving in the opposite direction overall.  

The 10 warmest years, on average, in global history, have been the last 10 years. Cold snaps and local, individualized weather events will still no doubt occur, but overwhelmingly, we find ourselves in a world that is and will continue to get warmer.  

Unfortunately, this topic has become a political debate, which it shouldn’t be. Climate change is happening, and we know that humans are a big part of it. It’s hard to say exactly how much human activity impacts standout years like this past winter — I’m not someone who will blame the entirety of warmer seasons like this on climate change.  

But we do know that because of climate change, this type of year was more likely to happen and will continue to be more likely in the future.

“In a less obvious way, these kinds of seasons, if we attribute part of their reason for occurring to climate change, can impact people by increasing feelings of stress, anxiety, hopelessness and frustration — and those things are really hard to live with.”-Meg du Bray, Ph.D.

Quotes from Meg du Bray, Ph.D., assistant professor of Geography, GIS and Sustainability in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences.

How can weather impact local communities and landscapes?

While the City of Greeley and Weld County in general have a relatively robust water reserve and a good claim to water rights, that isn’t necessarily the case everywhere.  

Seeing as how we live in a very dry, arid state, water shortages are a real concern.  

That, naturally, impacts a community in a number of ways, from added stress in daily life to impacts for agricultural businesses, ability to garden and plant, potential increased prices at grocery stores and more.  

For an area like the western United States, prolonged periods of warm, dry weather can also have impacts on natural landmarks as well. We live near the Poudre River, for instance. If there isn’t a lot of snowmelt runoff from the mountains, the river, and all the people and animals who interact with it, will be impacted as well.  

In a less obvious way, these kinds of seasons, if we attribute part of their reason for occurring to climate change, can impact people by increasing feelings of stress, anxiety, hopelessness and frustration — and those things are really hard to live with. 

How could people’s daily lives be impacted by this recent warmer, drier weather?

For our farmers, folks in agriculture and other industries that rely heavily on a consistent supply of a lot of water, these warmer, drier seasons pose a real risk. Even those with strong water rights, those rights are dependent on a robust snowpack. If we don’t have a good snowpack, it puts them at risk of not being able to grow crops successfully. 

It goes deeper than that, too; all of these things are connected. In a year when gas, oil and fertilizer prices are already higher than usual, those farmers’ bottom lines could seriously be impacted. That, in turn, could lead to higher prices at the grocery store for the average person.  

Additionally, depending on where you are in the country, especially out here in the west, this weather could impact your water availability. The City of Denver has already stated that they’re considering water restrictions — they want people to cut water use by 20%. That’s a potential additional stressor on people as well.  

On top of cutting back on water use, the water that is available will go up in price. If, for example, someone planted a young tree last year, not only might they not have enough water to keep it hydrated, the water they do have access to will be more expensive. It might come down to needing to decide between watering that tree and having water for use in cooking, cleaning, drinking, etc.  

Lastly, we might see health side effects as well. Higher heat can exacerbate preexisting health conditions like asthma, and if you don’t have consistent access to air conditioning, you can be at risk of heat stroke as well. We tend to think of these issues as mainly being problems in hotter, drier places like Phoenix, but with a season like the one we’ve been having, they could certainly be considerations here in Colorado as well.  

How can the impacts of warmer/drier weather and water scarcity be mitigated?

In a perfect, pie-in-the-sky world? We would stop emitting entirely — the cessation of using fossil fuels today, yesterday, 10 years ago. 

But when I say that, I also recognize that we will probably always need fossil fuels in some way, even if only as an energy backup, because there’s no single energy solution going forward. 

That said, if we had shifted to using them only as a backup, say, five years ago, I think we’d be in a very different place now.  

From a more relatively accessible point of view? There are a few things people can do.  

If, say, you’re a homeowner and you water your yard every day; switch to once, maybe twice a week. Skip meat once or twice a week. Remind yourself to turn the lights off when you leave a room. Take a Navy shower (running the water only while you’re rinsing, not in between) — I hate this one, personally, but it adds up. 

Stuff like that really goes a long way towards helping one’s individual consumption habits.  

I truly think structural change in terms of societal expectations would be helpful — up to the highest reaches of government. But in a time when that doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen, the small changes are the ones we can latch onto and give our all.

What are some common misconceptions surrounding weather’s impact on the environment?

Broadly, I wish people understood what “climate change” really meant, why it’s happening and how humans are involved. 

More locally, I want to convey that, while we, as individuals, can’t solve this problem on our own due to how society is set up, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try or that we should abdicate responsibility and just not do anything about it. 

If you’re living in a vulnerable situation or through a stressful time of life like many, many people are right now, I absolutely understand and respect that. It’s more along the lines of if you have two minutes to stop and think about turning off the water during dishes or chores — those things matter. They add up.  

So, I would hope that people aren’t discouraged by taking those small steps.  

I also think it’s important to know that you don’t have to be super hopeful or like, full of optimism right now. Seek reassurance, belonging and togetherness. No one has to do any of this alone.

“This past season is almost unlike anything I’ve seen since I started in agriculture. People just don’t have enough water to meet their needs in a lot of cases. Some of the other neighboring states might not be quite as dry as we are in Colorado, but they’re definitely not in great positions either. It’s going to be bad; a very tough season. “-Alan Oster, ’98.

Quotes from Alan Oster, ‘98, owner of Oster Farms, LLC in La Salle, CO.

How much impact does the weather have on your business?

Weather has a lot of impact on us here. Where we grow, different types of crops require different amounts of water. Hay and grass, for instance, require more water, while something like alfalfa can go for a while longer with less water.  

Growing hay, which is what I do, requires a combination of rain, sun and irrigation. When we get a season like the one we’ve had, with almost no rain and a ton of heat, it makes it a lot harder to grow consistently. Usually, a lack of rain wouldn’t be as bad as it is, but because we’re getting hit with the double whammy of really hot temperatures and almost no rain, I’m worried about being able to meet customer demands and produce product that’s of the quality that I need.  

Even when it does rain, if your fields have been dry up until that point, it makes producing difficult. Sure, if it rains cats and dogs all of a sudden, that’s great. But if I haven’t been able to put down a lot of fertilizer because the season has been hot and dry and the fertilizer will burn up, then the hay won’t grow nearly as fast or as much when the rains do come.  

All industries have economic factors at play — taxes, gas, the economy — but we have the weather to deal with on top of those. You can’t control the weather, but it has a huge impact on a lot of different aspects of growing things in agriculture.

What is your watering process like and what determines how much water you can use?

Normally, our watering system is mostly drawn from the river — my neighbor’s supply is drawn entirely from the river. This year, the river has a lot less water because of how low the snowpack is. Before the snow came last week, I had reached a point where I was entirely out of water. The snow was great, because it brought moisture with it, but it only lasts so long. Now, I’m pretty much out of water again.

There are some ditches that have higher seniority water rights that do still have some, but those are few enough. There are also ditches who are lower than us who might’ve run out of water two or three weeks ago.  

Some farms have more based on how much water they bought back in the 50s and 60s, but that isn’t necessarily tied to the size of the farm itself. There are large farms out there that can’t get the water they need because they didn’t invest as much in buying water rights years and years ago as another farm down the road might have.  

I also have wells that I pull water from on a few of my farms, and in normal years, I’d say I have a pretty good stock of water to use in helping water the hay. But this year, because they weren’t able to replenish the groundwater stock thanks to how dry it was last year, too, we’re restricted to using 35% capacity of our wells. Last year it was 50%, but this year, when I need it more, it’s lower, so that’s been hard. 

Do you have any concerns about impacts from this most recent warmer, drier winter/spring?

This past season is almost unlike anything I’ve seen since I started in agriculture. People just don’t have enough water to meet their needs in a lot of cases.  

Unless something changes and we get rains in the coming weeks, I just don’t know that I’ll be able to produce anywhere near my normal amount; and that goes for a lot of the other farms, too, I can tell you. 

Something else is that in normal years, we can bring in hay from places like Nebraska and maybe South Dakota. But this year, Nebraska had a lot of wildfires that burnt up their rangelands, so they ended up needing hay brought in. 

Some of the other neighboring states might not be quite as dry as we are in Colorado, but they’re definitely not in great positions either. It’s going to be bad; a very tough season.  

What might people not know about agriculture and the impacts of weather?

When there’s less crop produced, farmers still have expenses to pay that went into the back end — things like equipment, maintenance, buying seeds, land payments. I understand that folks don’t like paying $15 for a bale of hay when they’re used to paying $9, but when people say it’s because of farmers’ price gouging and taking advantage of a bad situation, that just isn’t accurate.  

When it comes to higher prices, farmers don’t want them any more than the average person does. People talk about price gouging and get upset, but some higher prices come from a place of need. I don’t want $15 or $20 bales of hay, because that might cause some customers to get rid of their horses and other animals, which would only hurt me next year or two years down the line.  

I’m very worried about high prices kicking in and people not being able or willing to pay them.

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